In 2023, the average price for a Thanksgiving dinner for a family of ten was $61.17. Unfortunately, nearly 40% of people are spending more than their allotted monthly amount on groceries this year. And as Americans continue to face inflation and high grocery prices, that could raise the cost of Thanksgiving for many families.
This dilemma stems from, among other factors, many poor policy choices from the Biden administration, including the FTC’s attempt to block a merger between Albertsons and Kroger. Kroger and Albertsons say the deal would allow them to lower prices and better compete with retailers like Walmart and Costco. Indeed, Kroger has committed to investing $1 billion to lower prices—if the merger goes through. The FTC has defended its attempts to block the merger with claims that retail membership clubs like Costco are not grocery competitors.
The FTC used to acknowledge (but recently deleted) that “many mergers produce savings by allowing the merged firms to reduce costs, eliminate duplicate functions, or achieve scale economies.” This deletion by Lina Khan’s FTC provides a window into how radically this administration has shifted away from consumers.
The Price of Food Is Up
Food prices have risen a horrific 28% in five years, thanks to higher operating costs for grocers, higher transportation costs and supply-chain disruptions with lagging effects. Experts predict that Thanksgiving food prices will be similarly high.
In an October appearance on Good Morning America, the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute predicted that while turkeys will cost 16% less than last year, providing some relief, ham prices are up 5.2%.
The price of canned goods is also up. And according to Swanson, the price of sweet potatoes is up 4% over last year; russet potatoes are at an all-time high, up 14%; canned green beans are up 9%; canned cranberry sauce is up about 7%; and canned pumpkin prices are up 30%.
Thankfully, a notable exception is fresh cranberries, which are down 20% compared to last year.
Where Do Americans Shop for Thanksgiving?
On average, 74% of grocery shopping still happens in physical stores – in one of the more than 63,000 supermarkets and grocery store businesses across the U.S., or one of the thousands of mass retailers like Walmart or retail clubs like Costco. It’s likely that to try to get the best savings, Americans will plan for the best deals and shop early for Thanksgiving this year, as they did last year.
The average American shops at two different grocery stores per week for their household needs, according to a recent survey by Drive Research. More than 40% of grocery shoppers go to multiple stores for cheaper prices and/or in search of specific brands.
Personally, I do the same. Before planning meals and groceries for the week, I scour the best deals offered by grocery stores and membership clubs in my area to get the best savings on my needs.
Last year, 76% of consumers said they planned to buy their Thanksgiving items at grocery stores, followed by mass retailers like Walmart or Target (37%) and clubs such as Costco or Sam’s Club (29%).
Thanksgiving Retail Deals
Retailers are competing to win over price-conscious Americans this year. In October, ALDI announced its 2024 Thanksgiving bundle for $47–the lowest price in five years. The dinner for ten includes a 16-pound Butterball turkey with spices, gravy, rolls, macaroni and cheese, stuffing, as well as ingredients for cranberry sauce, mashed potatoes, sweet potato casserole, green bean casserole and pumpkin pie.
Meanwhile, Walmart announced its “inflation-free holiday meals”, which serve up to 10 people for less than $7 a plate.
However, experts are warning consumers about shrinkflation, which according to some estimates has affected about one-third of grocery items this year. Shrinkflation is when products cost the same amount but have decreased in size. This gives shoppers less bang for their buck.
Savvy shoppers can save this Thanksgiving by buying fresh products like cranberries, opting for turkey over ham, and seeking out deals at multiple retailers. But persistent food inflation means deals on some products will be hard to find. And the FTC isn’t doing consumers a favor by focusing on aggressive tactics that disregard their welfare in the marketplace and will keep prices high.